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Week 18 Scores
MIAMIA
-
BUFBUF
-
MIA -12O/U 53.5
Preview
DENDEN
-
KCKC
-
DEN -7.5O/U 60
Preview
GBGB
-
MINMIN
-
MIN -22.5O/U 54
Preview
ARIARI
-
CHICHI
-
ARI -15O/U 51.5
Preview
NYJNYJ
-
NENE
-
NE -23.5O/U 50
Preview
ATLATL
-
CLECLE
-
CLE -4O/U 56
Preview
DALDAL
-
JAXJAX
-
JAX -11.5O/U 53
Preview
BALBAL
-
PITPIT
-
PIT -6O/U 51
Preview
WASWAS
-
PHIPHI
-
PHI -19.5O/U 57.5
Preview
NYGNYG
-
HOUHOU
-
NYG -4O/U 51
Preview
SFSF
-
DETDET
-
DET -13O/U 60
Preview
CARCAR
27
NONO
25
FINAL Box Score
LACLAC
-
CINCIN
-
LAC -12O/U 53
Preview
TBTB
21
LVLV
14
FINAL Box Score
INDIND
-
TENTEN
-
IND -13O/U 55
Preview
SEASEA
-
LARLAR
-
LAR -7.5O/U 55
Preview
Back to Schedule
Week 18 Regular Season
DET

Detroit Lions

(13-3) • Home

40.4PPG
19.1PA
VS
SF

San Francisco 49ers

(8-8) • Away

28.7PPG
24.5PA
0
KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +0.5 pts
DETDET2 out • -0.7 pts
Brian Thomas Jr (WR)95 OVR
Isiah Pacheco (HB)87 OVR
SFSF2 out • -0.1 pts
Bob Vance (WR)92 OVR
Johnny Minyanni (QB)71 OVR
Game Projections

Spread

DET -13

INJ adj: +0.5

ACC adj: -3.5

SOS adj: +0.5

Base: +15.5

DET favored

Money Line

DET-991
SF+991
Win Prob91% / 9%

Over/Under

57

Combined projected points

Team O/U

32.5

DET

24.5

SF

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
98%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+9.0

DET: 40.5 OFF / 20.7 DEF — SF: 29.3 OFF / 27.8 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate+9.5

DET: 13-3 — SF: 8-8

Recent Form+0.5

DET: -5.3 pts — SF: -5.9 pts

Injury Impact-1.0

DET: 2 out — SF: 2 out

Team ADJ (historical)-3.5
Final SpreadDET -13
Offense (Per Game)
DETSTATSF
40.4
PPG
28.7
343.3
Total YPG
281.0
214.6
Pass YPG
193.4
128.7
Rush YPG
87.6
2.1
Pass TD/G
1.6
1.4
Rush TD/G
0.9
1.5
TO/G
1.6
0.0%
3rd Down %
0.0%
41.8%
RZ TD %
53.8%
Defense (Per Game)
DETSTATSF
19.1
PPG Allowed
24.5
287.8
Total YPG
270.1
220.4
Pass YPG
188.8
67.4
Rush YPG
81.4
3.2
Sacks/G
3.1
2.1
INTs/G
0.4
3.0
Takeaways/G
1.6
0.9
FF/G
1.3
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

DET

DET Props

Total Points
38.00
Points Against (Def)
23.00
Pass Yards
260.00
passAttempts
34.00
passTds
1.50
Rush Yards
125.00
rushTds
1.00
rushAttempts
28.00
fgMade
0.00
Total Yards
385.00
Sacks Recorded
4.00
Turnovers
1.50
defPointsAgainst
23.00
defTackles
39.00
defSacks
4.00
defTFLs
7.00
defInterceptions
1.50
defForcedFumbles
1.00
defFumbleRecoveries
1.00
defTds
1.00
SF

SF Props

Total Points
26.50
Points Against (Def)
33.00
Pass Yards
255.00
passAttempts
34.00
passTds
1.50
Rush Yards
90.00
rushTds
1.00
rushAttempts
20.00
fgMade
0.00
Total Yards
350.00
Sacks Recorded
3.00
Turnovers
2.50
defPointsAgainst
33.00
defTackles
44.00
defSacks
3.00
defTFLs
5.50
defInterceptions
0.50
defForcedFumbles
1.50
defFumbleRecoveries
1.50
defTds
0.50
Key Matchup Edges
DET

Offense vs Defense

DET offense (343 YPG) vs SF defense (270 YPG allowed)

DET

Turnover Battle

DET: +24 | SF: +1

DET

Home Field

DET playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +0.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

DETDET Injuries

-0.7 pts impact
Brian Thomas Jr(WR)
95 OVR → 89-0.8 pts
Isiah Pacheco(HB)
87 OVR → 99-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.8
DEF impact: -0.0

SFSF Injuries

-0.1 pts impact
Bob Vance(WR)
92 OVR → 91-0.1 pts
Johnny Minyanni(QB)
71 OVR → 98-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.1
DEF impact: -0.0
Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +0.5 points.

DETDET Schedule

SOS: 0.494
Games Played990
Opponent Record1692W - 1732L
Opp Win %49.4%
Spread Adj0.0 pts

SFSF Schedule

SOS: 0.508
Games Played990
Opponent Record1740W - 1684L
Opp Win %50.8%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.