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Week 18 Scores
MIAMIA
-
BUFBUF
-
MIA -12O/U 53.5
Preview
DENDEN
42
KCKC
41
FINAL Box Score
GBGB
-
MINMIN
-
MIN -22.5O/U 54
Preview
ARIARI
-
CHICHI
-
ARI -15O/U 51.5
Preview
NYJNYJ
-
NENE
-
NE -23.5O/U 50
Preview
ATLATL
-
CLECLE
-
CLE -4O/U 56
Preview
DALDAL
-
JAXJAX
-
JAX -11.5O/U 53
Preview
BALBAL
-
PITPIT
-
PIT -6O/U 51
Preview
WASWAS
-
PHIPHI
-
PHI -19.5O/U 57.5
Preview
NYGNYG
-
HOUHOU
-
NYG -4O/U 51
Preview
SFSF
-
DETDET
-
DET -13O/U 60
Preview
CARCAR
27
NONO
25
FINAL Box Score
LACLAC
-
CINCIN
-
LAC -12O/U 53
Preview
TBTB
21
LVLV
14
FINAL Box Score
INDIND
-
TENTEN
-
IND -13O/U 55
Preview
SEASEA
-
LARLAR
-
LAR -7.5O/U 55
Preview
Back to Schedule
Week 18 Regular Season
BUF

Buffalo Bills

(3-13) • Home

17.3PPG
32.2PA
VS
MIA

Miami Dolphins

(8-8) • Away

27.7PPG
26.7PA
0
KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -4.5 pts
BUFBUF3 out • -0.4 pts
Juan Perez (TE)76 OVR
Colin Pizzo (LT)77 OVR
Kingsley Suamataia (LG)76 OVR
MIAMIA2 out • -4.8 pts
C.J. Stroud (QB)91 OVR
Tory Horton (WR)87 OVR
Game Projections

Spread

MIA -12

INJ adj: -4.5

ACC adj: +3.5

SOS adj: +0.5

Base: -11.5

MIA favored

Money Line

BUF+548
MIA-548
Win Prob15% / 85%

Over/Under

53.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

24

BUF

29.5

MIA

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
90%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-9.0

BUF: 17.5 OFF / 33.8 DEF — MIA: 27.7 OFF / 26.4 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate-9.5

BUF: 3-13 — MIA: 8-8

Recent Form+0.5

BUF: +4.4 pts — MIA: +4.0 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

BUF: .438 avg opp — MIA: .514 avg opp

Injury Impact+2.5

BUF: 3 out — MIA: 2 out

Team ADJ (historical)+3.5
Final SpreadMIA -12
Offense (Per Game)
BUFSTATMIA
17.3
PPG
27.7
267.3
Total YPG
249.5
165.5
Pass YPG
167.0
101.8
Rush YPG
82.5
0.8
Pass TD/G
1.3
0.6
Rush TD/G
0.8
2.1
TO/G
1.1
0.0%
3rd Down %
0.0%
37.5%
RZ TD %
46.0%
Defense (Per Game)
BUFSTATMIA
32.2
PPG Allowed
26.7
339.3
Total YPG
260.0
209.9
Pass YPG
168.3
129.4
Rush YPG
91.7
2.4
Sacks/G
2.9
0.8
INTs/G
1.1
1.3
Takeaways/G
1.5
0.6
FF/G
0.4
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

BUF

BUF Props

Total Points
21.50
Points Against (Def)
29.50
Pass Yards
185.00
passAttempts
25.00
passTds
0.50
Rush Yards
105.00
rushTds
0.50
rushAttempts
24.00
fgMade
0.00
Total Yards
290.00
Sacks Recorded
2.50
Turnovers
1.50
defPointsAgainst
29.50
defTackles
53.00
defSacks
2.50
defTFLs
5.00
defInterceptions
1.00
defForcedFumbles
0.50
defFumbleRecoveries
0.50
defTds
1.00
MIA

MIA Props

Total Points
29.50
Points Against (Def)
22.00
Pass Yards
245.00
passAttempts
33.00
passTds
1.00
Rush Yards
115.00
rushTds
0.50
rushAttempts
25.00
fgMade
0.00
Total Yards
360.00
Sacks Recorded
4.00
Turnovers
1.50
defPointsAgainst
22.00
defTackles
43.00
defSacks
4.00
defTFLs
7.00
defInterceptions
1.00
defForcedFumbles
0.00
defFumbleRecoveries
0.00
defTds
0.50
Key Matchup Edges
MIA

Turnover Battle

BUF: -13 | MIA: +6

MIA

Pass Rush

BUF: 2.4 sacks/g | MIA: 2.9 sacks/g

BUF

Home Field

BUF playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -4.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

BUFBUF Injuries

-0.4 pts impact
Juan Perez(TE)
76 OVR → 70-0.4 pts
Colin Pizzo(LT)
77 OVR → 79-0.0 pts
Kingsley Suamataia(LG)
76 OVR → 81-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.4
DEF impact: -0.0

MIAMIA Injuries

-4.8 pts impact
C.J. Stroud(QB)
91 OVR → 71-4.8 pts
Tory Horton(WR)
87 OVR → 92-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -4.8
DEF impact: -0.0
Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +0.5 points.

BUFBUF Schedule

SOS: 0.514
Games Played991
Opponent Record1775W - 1681L
Opp Win %51.4%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts

MIAMIA Schedule

SOS: 0.508
Games Played991
Opponent Record1755W - 1701L
Opp Win %50.8%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts
Head-to-Head History
BUFMIA leads series 1-0MIA
Wk 15Reg
MIAMIA48
-
20BUFBUF

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.