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Week 18 Scores
MIAMIA
-
BUFBUF
-
MIA -12O/U 53.5
Preview
DENDEN
42
KCKC
41
FINAL Box Score
GBGB
-
MINMIN
-
MIN -22.5O/U 54
Preview
ARIARI
-
CHICHI
-
ARI -15O/U 51.5
Preview
NYJNYJ
-
NENE
-
NE -23.5O/U 50
Preview
ATLATL
-
CLECLE
-
CLE -4O/U 56
Preview
DALDAL
-
JAXJAX
-
JAX -11.5O/U 53
Preview
BALBAL
-
PITPIT
-
PIT -6O/U 51
Preview
WASWAS
-
PHIPHI
-
PHI -19.5O/U 57.5
Preview
NYGNYG
-
HOUHOU
-
NYG -4O/U 51
Preview
SFSF
-
DETDET
-
DET -13O/U 60
Preview
CARCAR
27
NONO
25
FINAL Box Score
LACLAC
-
CINCIN
-
LAC -12O/U 53
Preview
TBTB
21
LVLV
14
FINAL Box Score
INDIND
-
TENTEN
-
IND -13O/U 55
Preview
SEASEA
-
LARLAR
-
LAR -7.5O/U 55
Preview
Back to Schedule
Week 17 Regular Season
ATL

Atlanta Falcons

(6-9) • Home

27.2PPG
28.7PA
VS
BAL

Baltimore Ravens

(11-5) • Away

23.7PPG
22.7PA
0
KEY INJURIESSpread impact: 0 pts
ATLATL2 out • 0.0 pts
Alec Pierce (WR)84 OVR
Tomas Alvarez (TE)73 OVR
BALBALHealthy

No key injuries reported

Game Projections

Spread

BAL -11.5

ACC adj: +2.0

SOS adj: +1

Base: -14.5

BAL favored

Money Line

ATL+855
BAL-855
Win Prob11% / 90%

Over/Under

52.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

26.5

ATL

26.5

BAL

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
98%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-3.0

ATL: 27.6 OFF / 29.9 DEF — BAL: 25.3 OFF / 21.1 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate-8.5

ATL: 6-9-1 — BAL: 11-5

Recent Form-5.0

ATL: -7.3 pts — BAL: -2.5 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

ATL: .476 avg opp — BAL: .587 avg opp

Injury Impact-0.5

ATL: 2 out — BAL: 0 out

Team ADJ (historical)+2.0
Final SpreadBAL -11.5
Offense (Per Game)
ATLSTATBAL
27.2
PPG
23.7
288.4
Total YPG
170.2
198.9
Pass YPG
101.9
89.4
Rush YPG
68.3
1.8
Pass TD/G
0.6
0.6
Rush TD/G
0.8
1.7
TO/G
0.7
0.0%
3rd Down %
0.0%
50.0%
RZ TD %
52.8%
Defense (Per Game)
ATLSTATBAL
28.7
PPG Allowed
22.7
298.8
Total YPG
163.8
197.4
Pass YPG
115.1
101.4
Rush YPG
48.7
2.3
Sacks/G
2.4
0.3
INTs/G
0.3
0.6
Takeaways/G
0.8
0.3
FF/G
0.5
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

ATL

ATL Props

Total Points
29.00
Points Against (Def)
26.50
Pass Yards
235.00
passAttempts
32.00
passTds
1.50
Rush Yards
110.00
rushTds
0.50
rushAttempts
24.00
fgMade
0.00
Total Yards
345.00
Sacks Recorded
3.50
Turnovers
1.50
defPointsAgainst
26.50
defTackles
48.00
defSacks
3.50
defTFLs
6.50
defInterceptions
0.50
defForcedFumbles
0.50
defFumbleRecoveries
0.50
defTds
0.00
BAL

BAL Props

Total Points
27.00
Points Against (Def)
26.50
Pass Yards
225.00
passAttempts
30.00
passTds
1.00
Rush Yards
115.00
rushTds
0.50
rushAttempts
26.00
fgMade
0.00
Total Yards
340.00
Sacks Recorded
4.00
Turnovers
1.00
defPointsAgainst
26.50
defTackles
32.00
defSacks
4.00
defTFLs
7.00
defInterceptions
0.50
defForcedFumbles
1.00
defFumbleRecoveries
1.00
defTds
0.50
Key Matchup Edges
ATL

Offense vs Defense

ATL offense (288 YPG) vs BAL defense (164 YPG allowed)

BAL

Turnover Battle

ATL: -18 | BAL: +1

ATL

Home Field

ATL playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by 0 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

ATLATL Injuries

0.0 pts impact
Alec Pierce(WR)
84 OVR → 94-0.0 pts
Tomas Alvarez(TE)
73 OVR → 88-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.0
DEF impact: -0.0
Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +1 points.

ATLATL Schedule

SOS: 0.509
Games Played991
Opponent Record1763W - 1701L
Opp Win %50.9%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts

BALBAL Schedule

SOS: 0.507
Games Played992
Opponent Record1762W - 1713L
Opp Win %50.7%
Spread Adj0.0 pts

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.