Golden Goose

Back to Schedule

Week 14 Regular Season

Philadelphia Eagles

(11-1) • Away

38.4PPG

19.4PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: 0 pts

JAXHealthy

No key injuries reported

PHI1 out • -0.2 pts

Nolan Smith Jr (LE)84 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

PHI -12.5

PHI favored

Money Line

JAX+855

PHI-855

Win Prob11% / 90%

Over/Under

Combined projected points

Team O/U

22.5

JAX

32.5

PHI

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

95%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-9.5

JAX: 27.5 OFF / 27 DEF — PHI: 39.2 OFF / 19.4 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-10.0

JAX: 7-5 — PHI: 11-1

Recent Form+2.0

JAX: +3.9 pts — PHI: +2.1 pts

Team ADJ (historical)+2.0

Final SpreadPHI -12.5

Offense (Per Game)

JAXSTATPHI

22.0

PPG

38.4

324.3

Total YPG

319.3

239.8

Pass YPG

212.3

84.6

Rush YPG

107.0

2.0

Pass TD/G

1.8

0.7

Rush TD/G

1.8

0.9

TO/G

0.8

50.8%

3rd Down %

53.2%

42.3%

RZ TD %

50.8%

Defense (Per Game)

JAXSTATPHI

28.0

PPG Allowed

19.4

308.6

Total YPG

307.7

203.7

Pass YPG

220.5

104.9

Rush YPG

87.2

2.7

Sacks/G

3.8

0.9

INTs/G

2.1

1.7

Takeaways/G

2.8

0.8

FF/G

0.7

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

JAX Props

Total Points

23.5

Points Against (Def)

30.5

Pass Yards

245.0

passAttempts

32.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

90.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

20.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

335.0

Sacks Recorded

2.5

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

30.5

defTackles

43.0

defSacks

2.5

defTFLs

4.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

0.5

PHI Props

Total Points

35.0

Points Against (Def)

21.0

Pass Yards

225.0

passAttempts

30.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

130.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

28.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

355.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

21.0

defTackles

42.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.0

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

2.0

Key Matchup Edges

PHI

Turnover Battle

JAX: +9 | PHI: +23

PHI

Pass Rush

JAX: 2.7 sacks/g | PHI: 3.8 sacks/g

JAX

Home Field

JAX playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by 0 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

PHI Injuries

-0.2 pts impact

Nolan Smith Jr(LE)

84 OVR → 82-0.2 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.2

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

JAX Schedule

SOS: 0.503

Games Played177

Opponent Record1086W - 1074L

Opp Win %50.3%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

PHI Schedule

SOS: 0.490

Games Played176

Opponent Record1053W - 1094L

Opp Win %49.0%

Spread Adj-0.1 pts