Golden Goose

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Week 14 Regular Season

Indianapolis Colts

(8-4) • Away

25.2PPG

26.1PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: 0 pts

HOUHealthy

No key injuries reported

IND3 out • 0.0 pts

Emeka Egbuka (WR)90 OVR

Tank Dell (WR)84 OVR

Christian McCaffrey (HB)79 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

IND -13.5

ACC adj: +3.5

SOS adj: +0.5

Base: -17.5

IND favored

Money Line

HOU+1333

IND-1333

Win Prob7% / 93%

Over/Under

52.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

HOU

27.5

IND

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

95%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-5.0

HOU: 20.7 OFF / 28.5 DEF — IND: 26.7 OFF / 24.7 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-15.0

HOU: 2-10 — IND: 8-4

Recent Form-3.0

HOU: -0.5 pts — IND: +2.6 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

HOU: .476 avg opp — IND: .563 avg opp

Injury Impact+1.5

HOU: 0 out — IND: 3 out

Team ADJ (historical)+3.5

Final SpreadIND -13.5

Offense (Per Game)

HOUSTATIND

20.4

PPG

25.2

221.8

Total YPG

332.8

167.6

Pass YPG

229.3

54.2

Rush YPG

103.5

1.3

Pass TD/G

1.9

0.2

Rush TD/G

0.8

1.3

TO/G

2.0

45.2%

3rd Down %

57.9%

51.9%

RZ TD %

47.6%

Defense (Per Game)

HOUSTATIND

29.9

PPG Allowed

26.1

252.0

Total YPG

259.1

168.3

Pass YPG

184.3

83.7

Rush YPG

74.8

1.8

Sacks/G

3.7

0.3

INTs/G

0.2

0.3

Takeaways/G

0.9

0.1

FF/G

0.8

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

HOU Props

Total Points

25.0

Points Against (Def)

27.0

Pass Yards

260.0

passAttempts

35.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

85.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

19.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

345.0

Sacks Recorded

3.0

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

27.0

defTackles

30.0

defSacks

3.0

defTFLs

5.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.0

defFumbleRecoveries

0.0

defTds

0.0

IND Props

Total Points

27.5

Points Against (Def)

24.5

Pass Yards

270.0

passAttempts

36.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

120.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

26.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

390.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

24.5

defTackles

39.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.5

defInterceptions

0.5

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

1.0

Key Matchup Edges

IND

Offense vs Defense

IND offense (333 YPG) vs HOU defense (252 YPG allowed)

IND

Pass Rush

HOU: 1.8 sacks/g | IND: 3.7 sacks/g

HOU

Home Field

HOU playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by 0 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

IND Injuries

0.0 pts impact

Emeka Egbuka(WR)

90 OVR → 93-0.0 pts

Tank Dell(WR)

84 OVR → 93-0.0 pts

Christian McCaffrey(HB)

79 OVR → 86-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +0.5 points.

HOU Schedule

SOS: 0.510

Games Played176

Opponent Record1094W - 1052L

Opp Win %51.0%

Spread Adj+0.1 pts

IND Schedule

SOS: 0.503

Games Played176

Opponent Record1082W - 1067L

Opp Win %50.3%

Spread Adj0.0 pts