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Week 14 Regular Season
CAR

Carolina Panthers

(7-6) • Home

22.3PPG
27.0PA
ATL

Atlanta Falcons

(5-7) • Away

27.1PPG
28.5PA
Game Projections

Spread

CAR -9

CAR favored

Money Line

CAR-408
ATL+408
Win Prob80% / 20%

Over/Under

53.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

26.5

CAR

27

ATL

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
97%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-0.5

CAR: 24.7 OFF / 26.8 DEF — ATL: 28.7 OFF / 29.3 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate+3.5

CAR: 7-6 — ATL: 5-7-1

Recent Form+6.0

CAR: +9.9 pts — ATL: +3.8 pts

Team ADJ (historical)-0.5
Final SpreadCAR -9
Offense (Per Game)
CARSTATATL
22.3
PPG
27.1
275.2
Total YPG
300.5
175.4
Pass YPG
207.5
99.8
Rush YPG
92.9
1.4
Pass TD/G
1.8
1.0
Rush TD/G
0.6
1.8
TO/G
1.5
40.6%
3rd Down %
47.5%
43.5%
RZ TD %
48.9%
Defense (Per Game)
CARSTATATL
27.0
PPG Allowed
28.5
288.8
Total YPG
312.2
190.6
Pass YPG
207.2
98.2
Rush YPG
105.0
3.2
Sacks/G
2.4
0.8
INTs/G
0.3
1.5
Takeaways/G
0.7
0.6
FF/G
0.4
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

CAR

CAR Props

Total Points
27.0
Points Against (Def)
27.5
Pass Yards
230.0
passAttempts
30.0
passTds
1.0
Rush Yards
105.0
rushTds
0.5
rushAttempts
23.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
330.0
Sacks Recorded
4.0
Turnovers
1.5
defPointsAgainst
27.5
defTackles
44.0
defSacks
4.0
defTFLs
7.5
defInterceptions
1.0
defForcedFumbles
0.5
defFumbleRecoveries
0.5
defTds
0.5
ATL

ATL Props

Total Points
29.0
Points Against (Def)
27.0
Pass Yards
235.0
passAttempts
31.0
passTds
1.5
Rush Yards
120.0
rushTds
0.5
rushAttempts
27.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
355.0
Sacks Recorded
5.0
Turnovers
1.5
defPointsAgainst
27.0
defTackles
48.0
defSacks
5.0
defTFLs
9.0
defInterceptions
1.0
defForcedFumbles
0.5
defFumbleRecoveries
0.5
defTds
0.0
Key Matchup Edges
CAR

Turnover Battle

CAR: -4 | ATL: -11

CAR

Pass Rush

CAR: 3.2 sacks/g | ATL: 2.4 sacks/g

CAR

Home Field

CAR playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

CARCAR Schedule

SOS: 0.507
Games Played176
Opponent Record1086W - 1055L
Opp Win %50.7%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts

ATLATL Schedule

SOS: 0.510
Games Played176
Opponent Record1098W - 1053L
Opp Win %51.0%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts
Head-to-Head History
CARCAR leads series 1-0ATL

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.