Golden Goose

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Week 14 Regular Season

Baltimore Ravens

(7-5) • Away

23.2PPG

23.1PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -0.5 pts

KC1 out • 0.0 pts

Jeremiah Stevens (QB)73 OVR

BAL1 out • -0.6 pts

Nnamdi Madubuike (DT)93 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

BAL -2.5

INJ adj: -0.5

ACC adj: +2.0

SOS adj: +1

Base: -5

BAL favored

Money Line

KC+210

BAL-210

Win Prob32% / 68%

Over/Under

52.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

28.5

BAL

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

88%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-7.0

KC: 21.2 OFF / 34.5 DEF — BAL: 25.1 OFF / 24.6 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-12.5

KC: 2-10 — BAL: 7-5

Recent Form+11.5

KC: +6.8 pts — BAL: -4.5 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

KC: .493 avg opp — BAL: .603 avg opp

Injury Impact+0.5

KC: 1 out — BAL: 2 out

Team ADJ (historical)+2.0

Final SpreadBAL -2.5

Offense (Per Game)

KCSTATBAL

21.1

PPG

23.2

209.3

Total YPG

176.3

148.2

Pass YPG

111.8

61.1

Rush YPG

64.5

1.2

Pass TD/G

0.8

0.3

Rush TD/G

0.8

1.1

TO/G

0.7

43.5%

3rd Down %

43.8%

51.7%

RZ TD %

61.5%

Defense (Per Game)

KCSTATBAL

34.7

PPG Allowed

23.1

310.4

Total YPG

176.8

210.5

Pass YPG

128.3

99.9

Rush YPG

48.6

3.2

Sacks/G

2.2

0.7

INTs/G

0.2

1.0

Takeaways/G

0.7

0.3

FF/G

0.5

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

KC Props

Total Points

23.0

Points Against (Def)

29.0

Pass Yards

200.0

passAttempts

27.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

85.0

rushTds

0.0

rushAttempts

19.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

285.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

29.0

defTackles

49.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.5

BAL Props

Total Points

28.5

Points Against (Def)

22.5

Pass Yards

245.0

passAttempts

33.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

125.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

28.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

370.0

Sacks Recorded

4.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

22.5

defTackles

32.0

defSacks

4.5

defTFLs

8.0

defInterceptions

0.5

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

0.5

Key Matchup Edges

Offense vs Defense

KC offense (209 YPG) vs BAL defense (177 YPG allowed)

Pass Rush

KC: 3.2 sacks/g | BAL: 2.2 sacks/g

Home Field

KC playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -0.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

KC Injuries

0.0 pts impact

Jeremiah Stevens(QB)

73 OVR → 82-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.0

BAL Injuries

-0.6 pts impact

Nnamdi Madubuike(DT)

93 OVR → 84-0.6 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.6

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +1 points.

KC Schedule

SOS: 0.517

Games Played176

Opponent Record1109W - 1037L

Opp Win %51.7%

Spread Adj+0.1 pts

BAL Schedule

SOS: 0.507

Games Played177

Opponent Record1095W - 1064L

Opp Win %50.7%