Golden Goose

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Week 14 Regular Season

Green Bay Packers

(1-11) • Away

17.0PPG

30.1PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +1 pts

CHI1 out • -1.1 pts

Elias Castro (HB)80 OVR

GBHealthy

No key injuries reported

Game Projections

Spread

CHI -3.5

INJ adj: +1

ACC adj: -2.5

Base: +5

CHI favored

Money Line

CHI-210

GB+210

Win Prob68% / 32%

Over/Under

48.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

23.5

CHI

25.5

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

88%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup0.0

CHI: 12.1 OFF / 32.3 DEF — GB: 16.7 OFF / 36.5 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-2.5

CHI: 0-12 — GB: 1-11

Recent Form+9.5

CHI: +0.3 pts — GB: -9.1 pts

Injury Impact-0.5

CHI: 1 out — GB: 0 out

Team ADJ (historical)-2.5

Final SpreadCHI -3.5

Offense (Per Game)

CHISTATGB

12.9

PPG

17.0

197.6

Total YPG

242.3

137.1

Pass YPG

189.7

60.5

Rush YPG

52.6

1.1

Pass TD/G

1.8

0.2

Rush TD/G

0.0

1.8

TO/G

1.0

34.3%

3rd Down %

34.7%

54.2%

RZ TD %

51.9%

Defense (Per Game)

CHISTATGB

33.2

PPG Allowed

30.1

237.1

Total YPG

331.8

159.1

Pass YPG

198.3

78.0

Rush YPG

133.4

2.4

Sacks/G

1.7

0.5

INTs/G

0.5

0.8

Takeaways/G

0.8

0.3

FF/G

0.3

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

CHI Props

Total Points

24.0

Points Against (Def)

25.0

Pass Yards

195.0

passAttempts

26.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

105.0

rushTds

0.0

rushAttempts

24.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

305.0

Sacks Recorded

4.0

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

25.0

defTackles

46.0

defSacks

4.0

defTFLs

7.5

defInterceptions

0.5

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.0

GB Props

Total Points

23.0

Points Against (Def)

27.5

Pass Yards

230.0

passAttempts

30.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

85.0

rushTds

0.0

rushAttempts

19.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

315.0

Sacks Recorded

4.0

Turnovers

1.0

defPointsAgainst

27.5

defTackles

42.0

defSacks

4.0

defTFLs

7.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.0

Key Matchup Edges

Turnover Battle

CHI: -12 | GB: -3

CHI

Pass Rush

CHI: 2.4 sacks/g | GB: 1.7 sacks/g

CHI

Home Field

CHI playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +1 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

CHI Injuries

-1.1 pts impact

Elias Castro(HB)

80 OVR → 68-1.1 pts

OFF impact: -1.1

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

CHI Schedule

SOS: 0.523

Games Played176

Opponent Record1123W - 1024L

Opp Win %52.3%

Spread Adj+0.2 pts

GB Schedule

SOS: 0.521

Games Played176

Opponent Record1119W - 1028L

Opp Win %52.1%

Spread Adj+0.1 pts