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Week 13 Regular Season
KC

Kansas City Chiefs

(2-9) • Home

20.4PPG
36.8PA
LAC

Los Angeles Chargers

(1-10) • Away

17.8PPG
34.8PA
KEY INJURIESSpread impact: 0 pts
KCKC2 out • 0.0 pts
Manuel Jimenez (WR)80 OVR
Jeremiah Stevens (QB)73 OVR
LACLAC3 out • 0.0 pts
Lathan Ransom (SS)80 OVR
Keelan Maynard (WR)80 OVR
Frank Nobles (RG)78 OVR
Game Projections

Spread

KC -3.5

KC favored

Money Line

KC-210
LAC+210
Win Prob68% / 32%

Over/Under

56

Combined projected points

Team O/U

28.5

KC

27.5

LAC

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
93%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+0.5

KC: 21.2 OFF / 34.5 DEF — LAC: 19.2 OFF / 33.3 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate+2.5

KC: 2-9 — LAC: 1-10

Recent Form+2.5

KC: +6.8 pts — LAC: +4.1 pts

Team ADJ (historical)-1.5
Final SpreadKC -3.5
Offense (Per Game)
KCSTATLAC
20.4
PPG
17.8
243.8
Total YPG
238.3
168.0
Pass YPG
163.5
75.8
Rush YPG
74.7
1.5
Pass TD/G
1.2
0.5
Rush TD/G
0.3
1.2
TO/G
1.8
42.7%
3rd Down %
36.4%
50.0%
RZ TD %
48.0%
Defense (Per Game)
KCSTATLAC
36.8
PPG Allowed
34.8
354.3
Total YPG
329.9
246.8
Pass YPG
209.9
107.5
Rush YPG
120.0
3.1
Sacks/G
2.6
0.9
INTs/G
0.9
1.3
Takeaways/G
1.0
0.4
FF/G
0.1
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

KC

KC Props

Total Points
26.5
Points Against (Def)
26.5
Pass Yards
215.0
passAttempts
28.0
passTds
1.0
Rush Yards
115.0
rushTds
0.0
rushAttempts
25.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
325.0
Sacks Recorded
5.0
Turnovers
1.5
defPointsAgainst
26.5
defTackles
49.0
defSacks
5.0
defTFLs
9.0
defInterceptions
1.5
defForcedFumbles
0.5
defFumbleRecoveries
0.5
defTds
0.5
LAC

LAC Props

Total Points
25.0
Points Against (Def)
28.0
Pass Yards
235.0
passAttempts
31.0
passTds
1.0
Rush Yards
115.0
rushTds
0.0
rushAttempts
25.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
350.0
Sacks Recorded
4.0
Turnovers
2.0
defPointsAgainst
28.0
defTackles
44.0
defSacks
4.0
defTFLs
7.5
defInterceptions
1.0
defForcedFumbles
0.0
defFumbleRecoveries
0.0
defTds
0.5
Key Matchup Edges
KC

Turnover Battle

KC: +1 | LAC: -9

KC

Home Field

KC playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by 0 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

KCKC Injuries

0.0 pts impact
Manuel Jimenez(WR)
80 OVR → 93-0.0 pts
Jeremiah Stevens(QB)
73 OVR → 82-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.0
DEF impact: -0.0

LACLAC Injuries

0.0 pts impact
Lathan Ransom(SS)
80 OVR → 89-0.0 pts
Keelan Maynard(WR)
80 OVR → 84-0.0 pts
Frank Nobles(RG)
78 OVR → 84-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.0
DEF impact: -0.0
Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

KCKC Schedule

SOS: 0.514
Games Played159
Opponent Record915W - 864L
Opp Win %51.4%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts

LACLAC Schedule

SOS: 0.518
Games Played159
Opponent Record922W - 858L
Opp Win %51.8%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts
Head-to-Head History
KCLAC leads series 1-0LAC

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.