Golden Goose

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Week 13 Regular Season

Chicago Bears

(0-11) • Away

12.4PPG

35.3PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +0.5 pts

MIN2 out • -1.5 pts

Trevin Wallace (MLB)90 OVR

Allen Riddick (HB)82 OVR

CHI1 out • -1.1 pts

Elias Castro (HB)80 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

MIN -20.5

INJ adj: +0.5

ACC adj: -5.0

Base: +25

MIN favored

Money Line

MIN-4045

CHI+4045

Win Prob98% / 2%

Over/Under

53.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

33.5

MIN

CHI

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

98%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+11.0

MIN: 29.4 OFF / 26.9 DEF — CHI: 13.8 OFF / 33.3 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate+16.5

MIN: 6-5 — CHI: 0-11

Recent Form+2.0

MIN: +1.7 pts — CHI: -0.1 pts

Injury Impact-0.5

MIN: 2 out — CHI: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)-5.0

Final SpreadMIN -20.5

Offense (Per Game)

MINSTATCHI

31.1

PPG

12.4

290.6

Total YPG

175.6

201.8

Pass YPG

125.2

88.8

Rush YPG

50.5

2.0

Pass TD/G

0.9

1.0

Rush TD/G

0.1

0.7

TO/G

1.5

51.0%

3rd Down %

28.6%

57.9%

RZ TD %

47.4%

Defense (Per Game)

MINSTATCHI

25.3

PPG Allowed

35.3

269.5

Total YPG

246.0

170.5

Pass YPG

161.4

98.9

Rush YPG

84.6

2.8

Sacks/G

2.6

0.7

INTs/G

0.5

1.1

Takeaways/G

0.7

0.4

FF/G

0.3

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

MIN Props

Total Points

32.5

Points Against (Def)

18.0

Pass Yards

225.0

passAttempts

30.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

115.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

25.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

340.0

Sacks Recorded

5.0

Turnovers

1.0

defPointsAgainst

18.0

defTackles

31.0

defSacks

5.0

defTFLs

9.0

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.5

CHI Props

Total Points

17.5

Points Against (Def)

32.0

Pass Yards

180.0

passAttempts

24.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

90.0

rushTds

0.0

rushAttempts

20.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

270.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

32.0

defTackles

46.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.0

defInterceptions

0.5

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.0

Key Matchup Edges

MIN

Offense vs Defense

MIN offense (291 YPG) vs CHI defense (246 YPG allowed)

MIN

Turnover Battle

MIN: +4 | CHI: -9

MIN

Home Field

MIN playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +0.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

MIN Injuries

-1.5 pts impact

Trevin Wallace(MLB)

90 OVR → 76-1.3 pts

Allen Riddick(HB)

82 OVR → 79-0.3 pts

OFF impact: -0.3

DEF impact: -1.3

CHI Injuries

-1.1 pts impact

Elias Castro(HB)

80 OVR → 68-1.1 pts

OFF impact: -1.1

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

MIN Schedule

SOS: 0.505

Games Played159

Opponent Record900W - 881L

Opp Win %50.5%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

CHI Schedule

SOS: 0.516

Games Played159

Opponent Record919W - 861L

Opp Win %51.6%

Spread Adj+0.1 pts

Head-to-Head History

MIN leads series 1-0 CHI

Wk 9Reg

CHI17

27MIN

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.