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Week 13 Regular Season
PIT

Pittsburgh Steelers

(4-7) • Home

23.4PPG
28.5PA
CLE

Cleveland Browns

(6-5) • Away

25.3PPG
24.8PA
KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -0.5 pts
PITPIT3 out • -0.1 pts
Andrew Manuel (RE)93 OVR
Jack Barlow (WR)86 OVR
Miguel Solano (RG)79 OVR
CLECLE1 out • -0.4 pts
Jeremy Day (RE)88 OVR
Game Projections

Spread

CLE -11

INJ adj: -0.5

ACC adj: +0.5

SOS adj: -1.5

Base: -9.5

CLE favored

Money Line

PIT+408
CLE-408
Win Prob20% / 80%

Over/Under

52.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

25.5

PIT

27

CLE

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
97%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-4.0

PIT: 22.9 OFF / 31.1 DEF — CLE: 25.6 OFF / 26.4 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate-5.5

PIT: 4-7 — CLE: 6-5

Recent Form-1.5

PIT: -8.4 pts — CLE: -6.8 pts

Strength of Schedule+0.5

PIT: .557 avg opp — CLE: .364 avg opp

Injury Impact-0.5

PIT: 3 out — CLE: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)+0.5
Final SpreadCLE -11
Offense (Per Game)
PITSTATCLE
23.4
PPG
25.3
278.6
Total YPG
264.7
218.5
Pass YPG
174.5
60.1
Rush YPG
90.2
1.8
Pass TD/G
0.7
0.5
Rush TD/G
1.2
1.2
TO/G
1.5
48.0%
3rd Down %
44.7%
52.6%
RZ TD %
43.2%
Defense (Per Game)
PITSTATCLE
28.5
PPG Allowed
24.8
323.4
Total YPG
257.5
220.5
Pass YPG
191.5
102.8
Rush YPG
66.1
3.5
Sacks/G
2.4
0.4
INTs/G
0.5
0.7
Takeaways/G
1.2
0.4
FF/G
0.6
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

PIT

PIT Props

Total Points
25.0
Points Against (Def)
28.5
Pass Yards
260.0
passAttempts
35.0
passTds
1.5
Rush Yards
85.0
rushTds
0.5
rushAttempts
19.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
345.0
Sacks Recorded
5.0
Turnovers
1.5
defPointsAgainst
28.5
defTackles
29.0
defSacks
5.0
defTFLs
9.0
defInterceptions
1.0
defForcedFumbles
0.5
defFumbleRecoveries
0.5
defTds
0.0
CLE

CLE Props

Total Points
28.5
Points Against (Def)
24.5
Pass Yards
250.0
passAttempts
33.0
passTds
0.5
Rush Yards
130.0
rushTds
1.0
rushAttempts
29.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
380.0
Sacks Recorded
2.5
Turnovers
1.5
defPointsAgainst
24.5
defTackles
47.0
defSacks
2.5
defTFLs
5.0
defInterceptions
1.0
defForcedFumbles
1.0
defFumbleRecoveries
1.0
defTds
0.0
Key Matchup Edges
PIT

Pass Rush

PIT: 3.5 sacks/g | CLE: 2.4 sacks/g

PIT

Home Field

PIT playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -0.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

PITPIT Injuries

-0.1 pts impact
Andrew Manuel(RE)
93 OVR → 92-0.1 pts
Jack Barlow(WR)
86 OVR → 93-0.0 pts
Miguel Solano(RG)
79 OVR → 79-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.0
DEF impact: -0.1

CLECLE Injuries

-0.4 pts impact
Jeremy Day(RE)
88 OVR → 84-0.4 pts
OFF impact: -0.0
DEF impact: -0.4
Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by -1.5 points.

PITPIT Schedule

SOS: 0.506
Games Played159
Opponent Record900W - 880L
Opp Win %50.6%
Spread Adj0.0 pts

CLECLE Schedule

SOS: 0.494
Games Played159
Opponent Record881W - 901L
Opp Win %49.4%
Spread Adj0.0 pts
Head-to-Head History
PITPIT leads series 1-0CLE

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.