Golden Goose

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Week 13 Regular Season

Los Angeles Rams

(8-3) • Away

32.5PPG

22.5PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -0.5 pts

ARI3 out • -0.5 pts

Cole Kmet (TE)83 OVR

Alijah Vera-Tucker (RG)87 OVR

Jackson Slater (LG)76 OVR

LAR1 out • -1.1 pts

Luther Burden III (WR)97 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

LAR -0.5

INJ adj: -0.5

ACC adj: +1.0

SOS adj: +0.5

Base: -1.5

LAR favored

Money Line

ARI+125

LAR-125

Win Prob45% / 56%

Over/Under

Combined projected points

Team O/U

ARI

LAR

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

80%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-5.5

ARI: 28 OFF / 28.9 DEF — LAR: 32.6 OFF / 23 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-8.0

ARI: 5-6 — LAR: 8-3

Recent Form+11.0

ARI: +7.6 pts — LAR: -3.2 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

ARI: .412 avg opp — LAR: .498 avg opp

Injury Impact-0.5

ARI: 3 out — LAR: 0 out

Team ADJ (historical)+1.0

Final SpreadLAR -0.5

Offense (Per Game)

ARISTATLAR

26.8

PPG

32.5

272.5

Total YPG

270.5

197.3

Pass YPG

149.3

75.2

Rush YPG

121.3

1.4

Pass TD/G

1.0

1.1

Rush TD/G

1.3

1.5

TO/G

1.3

52.6%

3rd Down %

52.0%

41.0%

RZ TD %

44.7%

Defense (Per Game)

ARISTATLAR

30.8

PPG Allowed

22.5

245.6

Total YPG

190.2

163.6

Pass YPG

141.9

82.0

Rush YPG

48.3

2.1

Sacks/G

2.2

0.6

INTs/G

1.1

0.9

Takeaways/G

1.3

0.3

FF/G

0.2

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

ARI Props

Total Points

26.0

Points Against (Def)

29.0

Pass Yards

260.0

passAttempts

35.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

95.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

21.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

355.0

Sacks Recorded

2.5

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

29.0

defTackles

45.0

defSacks

2.5

defTFLs

4.0

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.0

LAR Props

Total Points

31.5

Points Against (Def)

24.0

Pass Yards

235.0

passAttempts

31.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

150.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

34.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

385.0

Sacks Recorded

2.5

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

24.0

defTackles

39.0

defSacks

2.5

defTFLs

4.5

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.5

Key Matchup Edges

ARI

Offense vs Defense

ARI offense (272 YPG) vs LAR defense (190 YPG allowed)

LAR

Turnover Battle

ARI: -6 | LAR: 0

ARI

Home Field

ARI playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -0.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

ARI Injuries

-0.5 pts impact

Cole Kmet(TE)

83 OVR → 78-0.4 pts

Alijah Vera-Tucker(RG)

87 OVR → 85-0.1 pts

Jackson Slater(LG)

76 OVR → 85-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.5

DEF impact: -0.0

LAR Injuries

-1.1 pts impact

Luther Burden III(WR)

97 OVR → 88-1.1 pts

OFF impact: -1.1

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +0.5 points.

ARI Schedule

SOS: 0.498

Games Played159

Opponent Record887W - 893L

Opp Win %49.8%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

LAR Schedule

SOS: 0.495

Games Played159

Opponent Record881W - 900L

Opp Win %49.5%