Golden Goose

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Week 13 Regular Season

New England Patriots

(8-3) • Away

29.3PPG

21.7PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +1.5 pts

BUF12 out • -1.7 pts

Jonathon Cooper (LE)84 OVR

Josh Rudnick (LE)83 OVR

Josh Downs (WR)86 OVR

+9 more

NEHealthy

No key injuries reported

Game Projections

Spread

NE -15.5

INJ adj: +1.5

ACC adj: +7.0

SOS adj: +1.5

Base: -25.5

NE favored

Money Line

BUF+4355

NE-4355

Win Prob2% / 98%

Over/Under

51.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

21.5

BUF

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

98%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-12.5

BUF: 16.4 OFF / 34.2 DEF — NE: 31.2 OFF / 24 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-16.5

BUF: 2-9 — NE: 8-3

Recent Form-3.5

BUF: -4.1 pts — NE: -0.6 pts

Strength of Schedule-1.0

BUF: .404 avg opp — NE: .590 avg opp

Team ADJ (historical)+7.0

Final SpreadNE -15.5

Offense (Per Game)

BUFSTATNE

17.3

PPG

29.3

235.8

Total YPG

303.6

150.5

Pass YPG

175.8

85.4

Rush YPG

127.8

0.5

Pass TD/G

1.5

0.5

Rush TD/G

1.3

2.2

TO/G

1.0

34.1%

3rd Down %

48.9%

34.6%

RZ TD %

40.0%

Defense (Per Game)

BUFSTATNE

32.0

PPG Allowed

21.7

329.0

Total YPG

260.9

222.4

Pass YPG

182.3

106.6

Rush YPG

78.6

2.1

Sacks/G

2.1

0.9

INTs/G

1.5

1.3

Takeaways/G

1.5

0.4

FF/G

0.0

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

BUF Props

Total Points

20.5

Points Against (Def)

31.5

Pass Yards

180.0

passAttempts

24.0

passTds

0.5

Rush Yards

95.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

22.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

280.0

Sacks Recorded

2.5

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

31.5

defTackles

53.0

defSacks

2.5

defTFLs

4.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

1.0

NE Props

Total Points

32.5

Points Against (Def)

20.5

Pass Yards

235.0

passAttempts

31.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

140.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

31.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

375.0

Sacks Recorded

3.0

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

20.5

defTackles

41.0

defSacks

3.0

defTFLs

6.0

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

0.0

defFumbleRecoveries

0.0

defTds

0.5

Key Matchup Edges

Turnover Battle

BUF: -10 | NE: +5

BUF

Home Field

BUF playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +1.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

BUF Injuries

-1.7 pts impact

Jonathon Cooper(LE)

84 OVR → 78-0.6 pts

Josh Rudnick(LE)

83 OVR → 78-0.5 pts

Josh Downs(WR)

86 OVR → 82-0.5 pts

Brian Hartline(WR)

83 OVR → 82-0.1 pts

Deon Bowers(HB)

81 OVR → 80-0.1 pts

Diego Escobar(C)

80 OVR → 80-0.0 pts

Nick Thompson(CB)

78 OVR → 90-0.0 pts

Ciante Sheldon(LOLB)

78 OVR → 84-0.0 pts

Braxton Jones(LT)

77 OVR → 79-0.0 pts

Matt Skeen(QB)

77 OVR → 77-0.0 pts

Colin Pizzo(LT)

76 OVR → 79-0.0 pts

Jared Goff(QB)

74 OVR → 77-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.7

DEF impact: -1.1

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +1.5 points.

BUF Schedule

SOS: 0.508

Games Played159

Opponent Record904W - 877L

Opp Win %50.8%

Spread Adj+0.1 pts

NE Schedule

SOS: 0.496

Games Played159

Opponent Record883W - 898L

Opp Win %49.6%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.

Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots

BUF Props

NE Props

BUF Injuries

BUF Schedule

NE Schedule