Golden Goose

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Week 13 Regular Season

Denver Broncos

(8-3) • Away

41.7PPG

21.0PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -1.5 pts

LVHealthy

No key injuries reported

DEN1 out • -1.4 pts

Nico Collins (WR)93 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

LV -4.5

INJ adj: -1.5

ACC adj: -0.5

SOS adj: +0.5

Base: +6

LV favored

Money Line

LV-243

DEN+243

Win Prob71% / 29%

Over/Under

60.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

32.5

DEN

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

88%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+3.5

LV: 41.5 OFF / 17.9 DEF — DEN: 40.3 OFF / 23.4 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate+8.0

LV: 11-0 — DEN: 8-3

Recent Form-7.0

LV: -3.4 pts — DEN: +3.8 pts

Injury Impact+1.0

LV: 0 out — DEN: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)-0.5

Final SpreadLV -4.5

Offense (Per Game)

LVSTATDEN

43.6

PPG

41.7

325.2

Total YPG

388.9

237.6

Pass YPG

277.8

87.5

Rush YPG

111.1

2.6

Pass TD/G

2.7

0.8

Rush TD/G

1.2

0.7

TO/G

2.3

61.0%

3rd Down %

62.5%

43.8%

RZ TD %

50.8%

Defense (Per Game)

LVSTATDEN

15.0

PPG Allowed

21.0

200.3

Total YPG

298.7

141.9

Pass YPG

196.3

58.4

Rush YPG

102.5

2.7

Sacks/G

3.3

1.4

INTs/G

1.5

1.6

Takeaways/G

1.9

0.3

FF/G

0.4

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

LV Props

Total Points

35.5

Points Against (Def)

26.0

Pass Yards

280.0

passAttempts

37.0

passTds

2.0

Rush Yards

110.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

24.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

385.0

Sacks Recorded

2.0

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

26.0

defTackles

49.0

defSacks

2.0

defTFLs

4.0

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.5

DEN Props

Total Points

32.5

Points Against (Def)

29.5

Pass Yards

275.0

passAttempts

37.0

passTds

2.0

Rush Yards

105.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

23.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

380.0

Sacks Recorded

3.0

Turnovers

2.5

defPointsAgainst

29.5

defTackles

45.0

defSacks

3.0

defTFLs

5.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

1.5

Key Matchup Edges

DEN

Offense vs Defense

DEN offense (389 YPG) vs LV defense (200 YPG allowed)

Turnover Battle

LV: +10 | DEN: -4

DEN

Pass Rush

LV: 2.7 sacks/g | DEN: 3.3 sacks/g

Home Field

LV playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -1.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

DEN Injuries

-1.4 pts impact

Nico Collins(WR)

93 OVR → 82-1.4 pts

OFF impact: -1.4

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +0.5 points.

LV Schedule

SOS: 0.493

Games Played159

Opponent Record877W - 903L

Opp Win %49.3%

Spread Adj-0.1 pts

DEN Schedule

SOS: 0.492

Games Played159

Opponent Record877W - 905L

Opp Win %49.2%