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Week 13 Regular Season
BAL

Baltimore Ravens

(6-5) • Home

23.4PPG
24.1PA
CIN

Cincinnati Bengals

(2-9) • Away

14.8PPG
28.3PA
KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -3 pts
BALBAL1 out • -0.5 pts
Vince Hurd (LT)80 OVR
CINCIN4 out • -3.5 pts
Josh Allen (QB)93 OVR
Nik Bonitto (RE)91 OVR
Otis Hall (HB)82 OVR
+1 more
Game Projections

Spread

BAL -6.5

INJ adj: -3

ACC adj: -4.0

SOS adj: -0.5

Base: +14

BAL favored

Money Line

BAL-794
CIN+794
Win Prob89% / 11%

Over/Under

47.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

27

BAL

20.5

CIN

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
85%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+6.5

BAL: 25.1 OFF / 24.6 DEF — CIN: 17 OFF / 29.6 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate+11.0

BAL: 6-5 — CIN: 2-9

Recent Form-3.5

BAL: -4.5 pts — CIN: -0.8 pts

Injury Impact+3.0

BAL: 1 out — CIN: 4 out

Team ADJ (historical)-4.0
Final SpreadBAL -6.5
Offense (Per Game)
BALSTATCIN
23.4
PPG
14.8
202.0
Total YPG
292.1
126.7
Pass YPG
233.3
75.3
Rush YPG
58.8
1.0
Pass TD/G
1.2
0.7
Rush TD/G
0.6
0.9
TO/G
1.9
40.9%
3rd Down %
39.5%
55.6%
RZ TD %
40.6%
Defense (Per Game)
BALSTATCIN
24.1
PPG Allowed
28.3
195.0
Total YPG
325.8
135.6
Pass YPG
223.5
59.4
Rush YPG
102.3
2.2
Sacks/G
3.2
0.3
INTs/G
0.5
0.9
Takeaways/G
0.7
0.6
FF/G
0.3
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

BAL

BAL Props

Total Points
28.0
Points Against (Def)
19.5
Pass Yards
220.0
passAttempts
29.0
passTds
1.0
Rush Yards
110.0
rushTds
0.5
rushAttempts
25.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
330.0
Sacks Recorded
3.5
Turnovers
1.0
defPointsAgainst
19.5
defTackles
32.0
defSacks
3.5
defTFLs
6.5
defInterceptions
1.0
defForcedFumbles
1.0
defFumbleRecoveries
1.0
defTds
0.5
CIN

CIN Props

Total Points
19.5
Points Against (Def)
27.5
Pass Yards
240.0
passAttempts
32.0
passTds
0.5
Rush Yards
75.0
rushTds
0.5
rushAttempts
17.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
320.0
Sacks Recorded
4.0
Turnovers
1.5
defPointsAgainst
27.5
defTackles
38.0
defSacks
4.0
defTFLs
7.0
defInterceptions
0.5
defForcedFumbles
0.5
defFumbleRecoveries
0.5
defTds
0.0
Key Matchup Edges
CIN

Offense vs Defense

CIN offense (292 YPG) vs BAL defense (195 YPG allowed)

BAL

Turnover Battle

BAL: 0 | CIN: -13

CIN

Pass Rush

BAL: 2.2 sacks/g | CIN: 3.2 sacks/g

BAL

Home Field

BAL playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -3 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

BALBAL Injuries

-0.5 pts impact
Vince Hurd(LT)
80 OVR → 74-0.5 pts
OFF impact: -0.5
DEF impact: -0.0

CINCIN Injuries

-3.5 pts impact
Josh Allen(QB)
93 OVR → 82-2.7 pts
Nik Bonitto(RE)
91 OVR → 85-0.7 pts
Otis Hall(HB)
82 OVR → 81-0.1 pts
Dalton Kincaid(TE)
82 OVR → 81-0.1 pts
OFF impact: -2.8
DEF impact: -0.7
Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by -0.5 points.

BALBAL Schedule

SOS: 0.503
Games Played160
Opponent Record900W - 891L
Opp Win %50.3%
Spread Adj0.0 pts

CINCIN Schedule

SOS: 0.518
Games Played159
Opponent Record922W - 859L
Opp Win %51.8%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.