Golden Goose

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Week 13 Regular Season

Detroit Lions

(9-2) • Away

41.4PPG

19.1PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: 0 pts

SEA3 out • 0.0 pts

Tucker Kraft (TE)88 OVR

Josh Justice (WR)82 OVR

Romeo Faulk (DT)77 OVR

DETHealthy

No key injuries reported

Game Projections

Spread

DET -2

ACC adj: -1.5

SOS adj: -1.5

Base: +1

DET favored

Money Line

SEA-116

DET+116

Win Prob54% / 46%

Over/Under

60.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

SEA

31.5

DET

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

80%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-3.0

SEA: 36.6 OFF / 21.8 DEF — DET: 41.7 OFF / 21.4 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-2.5

SEA: 8-3 — DET: 9-2

Recent Form+7.0

SEA: +4.2 pts — DET: -2.8 pts

Strength of Schedule+1.0

SEA: .564 avg opp — DET: .373 avg opp

Injury Impact-1.0

SEA: 3 out — DET: 0 out

Team ADJ (historical)-1.5

Final SpreadDET -2

Offense (Per Game)

SEASTATDET

37.5

PPG

41.4

279.4

Total YPG

375.4

151.0

Pass YPG

241.5

128.4

Rush YPG

133.8

2.2

Pass TD/G

2.4

1.2

Rush TD/G

1.8

0.7

TO/G

1.3

57.1%

3rd Down %

55.8%

58.7%

RZ TD %

40.3%

Defense (Per Game)

SEASTATDET

23.4

PPG Allowed

19.1

239.6

Total YPG

298.2

185.7

Pass YPG

229.0

53.9

Rush YPG

69.2

2.9

Sacks/G

3.7

2.1

INTs/G

2.1

2.4

Takeaways/G

3.0

0.3

FF/G

0.9

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

SEA Props

Total Points

32.5

Points Against (Def)

28.5

Pass Yards

225.0

passAttempts

30.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

135.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

30.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

355.0

Sacks Recorded

2.5

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

28.5

defTackles

36.0

defSacks

2.5

defTFLs

5.0

defInterceptions

2.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.5

DET Props

Total Points

34.5

Points Against (Def)

27.5

Pass Yards

265.0

passAttempts

36.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

120.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

26.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

385.0

Sacks Recorded

3.0

Turnovers

2.5

defPointsAgainst

27.5

defTackles

39.0

defSacks

3.0

defTFLs

5.0

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

1.0

Key Matchup Edges

DET

Offense vs Defense

DET offense (375 YPG) vs SEA defense (240 YPG allowed)

DET

Pass Rush

SEA: 2.9 sacks/g | DET: 3.7 sacks/g

SEA

Home Field

SEA playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by 0 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

SEA Injuries

0.0 pts impact

Tucker Kraft(TE)

88 OVR → 93-0.0 pts

Josh Justice(WR)

82 OVR → 88-0.0 pts

Romeo Faulk(DT)

77 OVR → 90-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by -1.5 points.

SEA Schedule

SOS: 0.494

Games Played159

Opponent Record880W - 902L

Opp Win %49.4%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

DET Schedule

SOS: 0.484

Games Played159

Opponent Record862W - 920L

Opp Win %48.4%

Spread Adj-0.1 pts