Golden Goose

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Week 12 Regular Season

New Orleans Saints

(5-6) • Away

31.1PPG

28.3PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +1 pts

DEN2 out • -1.5 pts

Nico Collins (WR)93 OVR

Saquon Barkley (HB)87 OVR

NO1 out • -0.3 pts

Jason Lockhart (SS)93 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

DEN -18

INJ adj: +1

ACC adj: -3.0

SOS adj: +1

Base: +19

DEN favored

Money Line

DEN-1664

NO+1664

Win Prob94% / 6%

Over/Under

Combined projected points

Team O/U

DEN

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

98%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+9.0

DEN: 41.6 OFF / 21.4 DEF — NO: 30 OFF / 27.8 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate+10.5

DEN: 8-2 — NO: 5-6

Recent Form+3.5

DEN: +4.1 pts — NO: +0.7 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

DEN: .460 avg opp — NO: .595 avg opp

Injury Impact-1.5

DEN: 2 out — NO: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)-3.0

Final SpreadDEN -18

Offense (Per Game)

DENSTATNO

41.7

PPG

31.1

397.4

Total YPG

302.5

289.8

Pass YPG

219.9

107.6

Rush YPG

82.5

3.0

Pass TD/G

2.2

1.0

Rush TD/G

0.8

2.1

TO/G

1.7

64.0%

3rd Down %

46.7%

50.9%

RZ TD %

53.3%

Defense (Per Game)

DENSTATNO

20.7

PPG Allowed

28.3

282.5

Total YPG

303.1

187.4

Pass YPG

214.8

95.1

Rush YPG

88.3

3.3

Sacks/G

2.4

1.6

INTs/G

1.2

2.0

Takeaways/G

2.5

0.4

FF/G

1.3

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

DEN Props

Total Points

38.5

Points Against (Def)

23.0

Pass Yards

300.0

passAttempts

40.0

passTds

2.0

Rush Yards

115.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

26.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

415.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

3.0

defPointsAgainst

23.0

defTackles

45.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.0

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

1.5

NO Props

Total Points

26.5

Points Against (Def)

34.0

Pass Yards

245.0

passAttempts

33.0

passTds

2.0

Rush Yards

100.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

22.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

345.0

Sacks Recorded

2.0

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

34.0

defTackles

35.0

defSacks

2.0

defTFLs

3.5

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

1.5

defFumbleRecoveries

1.5

defTds

0.5

Key Matchup Edges

DEN

Offense vs Defense

DEN offense (397 YPG) vs NO defense (303 YPG allowed)

Turnover Battle

DEN: -1 | NO: +8

DEN

Pass Rush

DEN: 3.3 sacks/g | NO: 2.4 sacks/g

DEN

Home Field

DEN playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +1 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

DEN Injuries

-1.5 pts impact

Nico Collins(WR)

93 OVR → 82-1.4 pts

Saquon Barkley(HB)

87 OVR → 86-0.1 pts

OFF impact: -1.5

DEF impact: -0.0

NO Injuries

-0.3 pts impact

Jason Lockhart(SS)

93 OVR → 89-0.3 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.3

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +1 points.

DEN Schedule

SOS: 0.494

Games Played150

Opponent Record772W - 790L

Opp Win %49.4%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

NO Schedule

SOS: 0.510

Games Played150

Opponent Record795W - 764L

Opp Win %51.0%

Spread Adj+0.1 pts

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.