Golden Goose

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Week 12 Regular Season

New York Giants

(6-5) • Away

26.4PPG

28.2PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: 0 pts

SF1 out • -0.1 pts

Bob Vance (WR)92 OVR

NYG1 out • -0.1 pts

Mike Hall Jr (DT)91 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

NYG -1.5

ACC adj: -0.5

SOS adj: +1

Base: -2

NYG favored

Money Line

SF+134

NYG-134

Win Prob43% / 57%

Over/Under

54.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

25.5

NYG

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

84%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+3.5

SF: 30.2 OFF / 26.3 DEF — NYG: 25.6 OFF / 28.9 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate+2.5

SF: 7-4 — NYG: 6-5

Recent Form-7.5

SF: -3.2 pts — NYG: +4.2 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

SF: .454 avg opp — NYG: .595 avg opp

Injury Impact-0.5

SF: 1 out — NYG: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)-0.5

Final SpreadNYG -1.5

Offense (Per Game)

SFSTATNYG

28.6

PPG

26.4

328.3

Total YPG

217.5

235.5

Pass YPG

127.6

92.8

Rush YPG

89.8

1.9

Pass TD/G

1.2

1.3

Rush TD/G

0.7

1.4

TO/G

0.9

50.8%

3rd Down %

43.5%

58.1%

RZ TD %

53.6%

Defense (Per Game)

SFSTATNYG

23.7

PPG Allowed

28.2

310.2

Total YPG

211.8

223.7

Pass YPG

152.0

86.5

Rush YPG

59.8

3.9

Sacks/G

2.1

0.4

INTs/G

0.5

1.5

Takeaways/G

0.9

1.2

FF/G

0.4

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

SF Props

Total Points

31.5

Points Against (Def)

24.5

Pass Yards

255.0

passAttempts

34.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

100.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

22.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

350.0

Sacks Recorded

4.0

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

24.5

defTackles

44.0

defSacks

4.0

defTFLs

7.5

defInterceptions

0.5

defForcedFumbles

1.5

defFumbleRecoveries

1.5

defTds

0.5

NYG Props

Total Points

26.0

Points Against (Def)

29.5

Pass Yards

220.0

passAttempts

30.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

120.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

27.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

345.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

29.5

defTackles

43.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

1.0

Key Matchup Edges

Offense vs Defense

SF offense (328 YPG) vs NYG defense (212 YPG allowed)

Pass Rush

SF: 3.9 sacks/g | NYG: 2.1 sacks/g

Home Field

SF playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by 0 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

SF Injuries

-0.1 pts impact

Bob Vance(WR)

92 OVR → 91-0.1 pts

OFF impact: -0.1

DEF impact: -0.0

NYG Injuries

-0.1 pts impact

Mike Hall Jr(DT)

91 OVR → 89-0.1 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.1

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +1 points.

SF Schedule

SOS: 0.495

Games Played150

Opponent Record769W - 786L

Opp Win %49.5%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

NYG Schedule

SOS: 0.506

Games Played150

Opponent Record788W - 770L

Opp Win %50.6%