Golden Goose

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Week 12 Regular Season

Philadelphia Eagles

(9-1) • Away

40.0PPG

19.1PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +1 pts

TB1 out • -1.1 pts

Bucky Irving (HB)93 OVR

PHI1 out • 0.0 pts

Smael Mondon Jr (WILL)76 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

PHI -8.5

INJ adj: +1

ACC adj: +3.0

Base: -12.5

PHI favored

Money Line

TB+636

PHI-636

Win Prob14% / 86%

Over/Under

Combined projected points

Team O/U

27.5

PHI

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

98%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-6.5

TB: 32 OFF / 23.9 DEF — PHI: 40.4 OFF / 19.4 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-2.5

TB: 9-2 — PHI: 9-1

Recent Form-6.5

TB: -1.7 pts — PHI: +4.8 pts

Injury Impact-1.0

TB: 1 out — PHI: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)+3.0

Final SpreadPHI -8.5

Offense (Per Game)

TBSTATPHI

33.9

PPG

40.0

331.9

Total YPG

324.8

192.4

Pass YPG

209.2

139.5

Rush YPG

115.6

1.1

Pass TD/G

1.8

1.5

Rush TD/G

1.8

1.5

TO/G

0.9

48.7%

3rd Down %

52.9%

42.0%

RZ TD %

50.9%

Defense (Per Game)

TBSTATPHI

23.9

PPG Allowed

19.1

277.1

Total YPG

292.4

188.8

Pass YPG

202.7

88.3

Rush YPG

89.7

5.5

Sacks/G

4.1

1.0

INTs/G

2.1

1.9

Takeaways/G

2.9

0.9

FF/G

0.8

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

TB Props

Total Points

28.5

Points Against (Def)

29.5

Pass Yards

215.0

passAttempts

29.0

passTds

0.5

Rush Yards

130.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

29.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

350.0

Sacks Recorded

4.5

Turnovers

2.5

defPointsAgainst

29.5

defTackles

40.0

defSacks

4.5

defTFLs

7.5

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

1.0

PHI Props

Total Points

34.5

Points Against (Def)

24.0

Pass Yards

225.0

passAttempts

30.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

115.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

26.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

340.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

24.0

defTackles

42.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.5

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

1.0

defFumbleRecoveries

1.0

defTds

2.0

Key Matchup Edges

Offense vs Defense

TB offense (332 YPG) vs PHI defense (292 YPG allowed)

PHI

Offense vs Defense

PHI offense (325 YPG) vs TB defense (277 YPG allowed)

PHI

Turnover Battle

TB: +4 | PHI: +20

Pass Rush

TB: 5.5 sacks/g | PHI: 4.1 sacks/g

Home Field

TB playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +1 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

TB Injuries

-1.1 pts impact

Bucky Irving(HB)

93 OVR → 82-1.1 pts

OFF impact: -1.1

DEF impact: -0.0

PHI Injuries

0.0 pts impact

Smael Mondon Jr(WILL)

76 OVR → 91-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

TB Schedule

SOS: 0.494

Games Played151

Opponent Record774W - 792L

Opp Win %49.4%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

PHI Schedule

SOS: 0.490

Games Played150

Opponent Record765W - 796L

Opp Win %49.0%

Spread Adj-0.1 pts

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.