Golden Goose

Back to Schedule

Week 12 Regular Season

New York Jets

(5-5) • Away

20.3PPG

24.1PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -0.5 pts

BUF2 out • 0.0 pts

Josh Rudnick (LEDGE)83 OVR

Colin Pizzo (LT)76 OVR

NYJ1 out • -0.6 pts

Jerry Barnett (HB)82 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

NYJ -22.5

INJ adj: -0.5

ACC adj: +5.5

Base: -27.5

NYJ favored

Money Line

BUF+5856

NYJ-5856

Win Prob2% / 98%

Over/Under

Combined projected points

Team O/U

22.5

BUF

NYJ

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

98%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-8.5

BUF: 16.4 OFF / 33.6 DEF — NYJ: 21.3 OFF / 21.4 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-9.0

BUF: 2-8 — NYJ: 5-5

Recent Form-17.0

BUF: -9.7 pts — NYJ: +7.5 pts

Injury Impact+0.5

BUF: 2 out — NYJ: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)+5.5

Final SpreadNYJ -22.5

Offense (Per Game)

BUFSTATNYJ

17.5

PPG

20.3

228.4

Total YPG

243.7

142.1

Pass YPG

172.2

86.3

Rush YPG

71.5

0.5

Pass TD/G

0.9

0.5

Rush TD/G

0.6

2.0

TO/G

0.9

32.7%

3rd Down %

37.5%

33.3%

RZ TD %

41.7%

Defense (Per Game)

BUFSTATNYJ

31.7

PPG Allowed

24.1

343.7

Total YPG

278.6

234.4

Pass YPG

207.2

109.3

Rush YPG

71.4

2.0

Sacks/G

3.4

1.0

INTs/G

0.2

1.4

Takeaways/G

1.4

0.4

FF/G

1.2

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

BUF Props

Total Points

19.0

Points Against (Def)

27.5

Pass Yards

185.0

passAttempts

25.0

passTds

0.5

Rush Yards

90.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

20.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

275.0

Sacks Recorded

4.0

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

27.5

defTackles

53.0

defSacks

4.0

defTFLs

7.0

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

1.0

NYJ Props

Total Points

26.0

Points Against (Def)

18.5

Pass Yards

220.0

passAttempts

30.0

passTds

0.5

Rush Yards

95.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

21.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

315.0

Sacks Recorded

4.0

Turnovers

1.0

defPointsAgainst

18.5

defTackles

42.0

defSacks

4.0

defTFLs

7.0

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

1.5

defFumbleRecoveries

1.5

defTds

0.0

Key Matchup Edges

NYJ

Turnover Battle

BUF: -6 | NYJ: +5

NYJ

Pass Rush

BUF: 2.0 sacks/g | NYJ: 3.4 sacks/g

BUF

Home Field

BUF playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -0.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

BUF Injuries

0.0 pts impact

Josh Rudnick(LEDGE)

83 OVR → 84-0.0 pts

Colin Pizzo(LT)

76 OVR → 79-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.0

DEF impact: -0.0

NYJ Injuries

-0.6 pts impact

Jerry Barnett(HB)

82 OVR → 75-0.6 pts

OFF impact: -0.6

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

BUF Schedule

SOS: 0.507

Games Played150

Opponent Record792W - 769L

Opp Win %50.7%

Spread Adj+0.1 pts

NYJ Schedule

SOS: 0.502

Games Played150

Opponent Record786W - 780L

Opp Win %50.2%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

Head-to-Head History

NYJ leads series 1-0 NYJ

Wk 1Reg

NYJ44

27BUF

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.