Golden Goose

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Week 11 Regular Season

San Francisco 49ers

(7-3) • Away

28.4PPG

23.5PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +1.5 pts

DEN2 out • -1.5 pts

Nico Collins (WR)93 OVR

Saquon Barkley (HB)87 OVR

SF3 out • -0.1 pts

Bob Vance (WR)92 OVR

Barry Tickleberry (DT)91 OVR

Isaac TeSlaa (WR)84 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

DEN -5.5

INJ adj: +1.5

ACC adj: -5.0

Base: +9

DEN favored

Money Line

DEN-444

SF+328

Win Prob79% / 21%

Over/Under

57.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

32.5

DEN

Offense (Per Game)

DENSTATSF

41.5

PPG

28.4

392.0

Total YPG

320.1

283.4

Pass YPG

231.7

108.6

Rush YPG

88.4

3.0

Pass TD/G

2.0

1.0

Rush TD/G

1.2

2.1

TO/G

1.2

64.1%

3rd Down %

53.2%

52.9%

RZ TD %

61.5%

Defense (Per Game)

DENSTATSF

20.7

PPG Allowed

23.5

268.3

Total YPG

296.6

177.9

Pass YPG

211.4

90.4

Rush YPG

85.2

3.3

Sacks/G

4.2

1.4

INTs/G

0.3

1.9

Takeaways/G

1.6

0.4

FF/G

1.3

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

DEN Props

Total Points37.5

Points Against (Def)23.5

Pass Yards290.0

passAttempts39.0

passTds2.0

Rush Yards110.0

rushTds0.5

rushAttempts25.0

fgMade0.0

Total Yards400.0

Sacks Recorded4.0

Turnovers2.0

defPointsAgainst23.5

defTackles45.0

defSacks4.0

defTFLs7.0

defInterceptions1.0

defForcedFumbles0.5

defFumbleRecoveries0.5

defTds1.5

SF Props

Total Points27.0

Points Against (Def)32.5

Pass Yards230.0

passAttempts31.0

passTds1.5

Rush Yards100.0

rushTds1.0

rushAttempts22.0

fgMade0.0

Total Yards330.0

Sacks Recorded3.0

Turnovers1.5

defPointsAgainst32.5

defTackles44.0

defSacks3.0

defTFLs5.0

defInterceptions1.0

defForcedFumbles1.5

defFumbleRecoveries1.5

defTds0.5

Key Matchup Edges

DEN

Offense vs Defense

DEN offense (392 YPG) vs SF defense (297 YPG allowed)

Offense vs Defense

SF offense (320 YPG) vs DEN defense (268 YPG allowed)

Turnover Battle

DEN: -2 | SF: +4

Pass Rush

DEN: 3.3 sacks/g | SF: 4.2 sacks/g

DEN

Home Field

DEN playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +1.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

DEN Injuries

-1.5 pts impact

Nico Collins(WR)

93 OVR → 82-1.4 pts

Saquon Barkley(HB)

87 OVR → 86-0.1 pts

OFF impact: -1.5

DEF impact: -0.0

SF Injuries

-0.1 pts impact

Bob Vance(WR)

92 OVR → 91-0.1 pts

Barry Tickleberry(DT)

91 OVR → 98-0.0 pts

Isaac TeSlaa(WR)

84 OVR → 91-0.0 pts

OFF impact: -0.1

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments.

DEN Schedule

SOS: 0.485

Games Played140

Opponent Record634W - 673L

Opp Win %48.5%

Spread Adj-0.1 pts

SF Schedule

SOS: 0.482

Games Played140

Opponent Record628W - 674L

Opp Win %48.2%