Golden Goose

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Week 16 Regular Season

Los Angeles Rams

(9-5) • Away

31.3PPG

21.8PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: +6.5 pts

SF3 out • -7.5 pts

Willie Beamen (QB)98 OVR

Johnny Minyanni (QB)71 OVR

Bob Vance (WR)92 OVR

LAR1 out • -1.1 pts

Luther Burden III (WR)97 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

SF -1.5

INJ adj: +6.5

ACC adj: +2.5

SOS adj: +0.5

Base: -8

SF favored

Money Line

SF+327

LAR-327

Win Prob23% / 77%

Over/Under

54.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

26.5

LAR

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

92%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-4.0

SF: 29.3 OFF / 27.8 DEF — LAR: 32.6 OFF / 23 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-2.0

SF: 8-6 — LAR: 9-5

Recent Form-2.5

SF: -5.9 pts — LAR: -3.2 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

SF: .458 avg opp — LAR: .521 avg opp

Injury Impact-2.5

SF: 3 out — LAR: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)+2.5

Final SpreadSF -1.5

Offense (Per Game)

SFSTATLAR

28.7

PPG

31.3

321.1

Total YPG

203.8

221.0

Pass YPG

128.6

100.1

Rush YPG

75.1

1.8

Pass TD/G

0.9

1.0

Rush TD/G

0.9

1.8

TO/G

0.9

48.3%

3rd Down %

53.5%

53.8%

RZ TD %

48.5%

Defense (Per Game)

SFSTATLAR

24.5

PPG Allowed

21.8

308.7

Total YPG

149.9

215.7

Pass YPG

107.4

93.0

Rush YPG

42.5

3.6

Sacks/G

1.6

0.4

INTs/G

0.7

1.9

Takeaways/G

0.8

1.4

FF/G

0.1

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

SF Props

Total Points

29.0

Points Against (Def)

27.5

Pass Yards

255.0

passAttempts

34.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

90.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

20.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

345.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

27.5

defTackles

44.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.0

defInterceptions

1.0

defForcedFumbles

1.5

defFumbleRecoveries

1.5

defTds

0.5

LAR Props

Total Points

30.5

Points Against (Def)

26.0

Pass Yards

240.0

passAttempts

32.0

passTds

1.0

Rush Yards

145.0

rushTds

1.0

rushAttempts

33.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

390.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

2.0

defPointsAgainst

26.0

defTackles

39.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.5

defInterceptions

1.5

defForcedFumbles

0.5

defFumbleRecoveries

0.5

defTds

0.5

Key Matchup Edges

Offense vs Defense

SF offense (321 YPG) vs LAR defense (150 YPG allowed)

Turnover Battle

SF: +1 | LAR: -2

Pass Rush

SF: 3.6 sacks/g | LAR: 1.6 sacks/g

Home Field

SF playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by +6.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

SF Injuries

-7.5 pts impact

Willie Beamen(QB)

98 OVR → 69-7.0 pts

Johnny Minyanni(QB)

71 OVR → 69-0.4 pts

Bob Vance(WR)

92 OVR → 91-0.1 pts

OFF impact: -7.5

DEF impact: -0.0

LAR Injuries

-1.1 pts impact

Luther Burden III(WR)

97 OVR → 88-1.1 pts

OFF impact: -1.1

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +0.5 points.

SF Schedule

SOS: 0.498

Games Played467

Opponent Record1401W - 1412L

Opp Win %49.8%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

LAR Schedule

SOS: 0.497

Games Played467

Opponent Record1398W - 1413L

Opp Win %49.7%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

Head-to-Head History

LAR leads series 1-0 LAR

Wk 5Reg

LAR43

16SF

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.