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Week 16 Regular Season
TEN

Tennessee Titans

(5-9) • Home

27.0PPG
26.6PA
CHI

Chicago Bears

(0-14) • Away

12.9PPG
33.2PA
KEY INJURIESSpread impact: 0 pts
TENTEN1 out • 0.0 pts
Josh Contreras (LOLB)83 OVR
CHICHI1 out • 0.0 pts
Elias Castro (HB)81 OVR
Game Projections

Spread

TEN -11.5

ACC adj: -2.0

SOS adj: +0.5

Base: +13

TEN favored

Money Line

TEN-685
CHI+685
Win Prob87% / 13%

Over/Under

51.5

Combined projected points

Team O/U

30.5

TEN

21

CHI

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH
95%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup+8.5

TEN: 26.3 OFF / 29.4 DEF — CHI: 12.1 OFF / 32.3 DEF

Home Field-1.0
Win Rate+10.5

TEN: 5-9 — CHI: 0-14

Recent Form-5.0

TEN: -4.9 pts — CHI: +0.3 pts

Strength of Schedule-0.5

TEN: .470 avg opp — CHI: .552 avg opp

Injury Impact+0.5

TEN: 1 out — CHI: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)-2.0
Final SpreadTEN -11.5
Offense (Per Game)
TENSTATCHI
27.0
PPG
12.9
291.4
Total YPG
169.4
194.7
Pass YPG
117.5
96.6
Rush YPG
51.9
1.6
Pass TD/G
0.9
0.9
Rush TD/G
0.1
1.3
TO/G
1.6
49.6%
3rd Down %
34.3%
44.7%
RZ TD %
54.2%
Defense (Per Game)
TENSTATCHI
26.6
PPG Allowed
33.2
259.7
Total YPG
203.2
190.4
Pass YPG
136.4
69.3
Rush YPG
66.9
2.6
Sacks/G
2.1
0.7
INTs/G
0.4
1.1
Takeaways/G
0.7
0.4
FF/G
0.3
Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

TEN

TEN Props

Total Points
30.5
Points Against (Def)
21.0
Pass Yards
240.0
passAttempts
32.0
passTds
1.0
Rush Yards
110.0
rushTds
0.5
rushAttempts
25.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
350.0
Sacks Recorded
5.0
Turnovers
1.0
defPointsAgainst
21.0
defTackles
31.0
defSacks
5.0
defTFLs
8.5
defInterceptions
1.0
defForcedFumbles
0.5
defFumbleRecoveries
0.5
defTds
0.0
CHI

CHI Props

Total Points
19.0
Points Against (Def)
30.5
Pass Yards
200.0
passAttempts
27.0
passTds
1.0
Rush Yards
85.0
rushTds
0.0
rushAttempts
19.0
fgMade
0.0
Total Yards
285.0
Sacks Recorded
3.5
Turnovers
2.0
defPointsAgainst
30.5
defTackles
46.0
defSacks
3.5
defTFLs
6.0
defInterceptions
0.5
defForcedFumbles
0.5
defFumbleRecoveries
0.5
defTds
0.0
Key Matchup Edges
TEN

Offense vs Defense

TEN offense (291 YPG) vs CHI defense (203 YPG allowed)

TEN

Turnover Battle

TEN: -3 | CHI: -12

TEN

Pass Rush

TEN: 2.6 sacks/g | CHI: 2.1 sacks/g

TEN

Home Field

TEN playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by 0 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

TENTEN Injuries

0.0 pts impact
Josh Contreras(LOLB)
83 OVR → 90-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.0
DEF impact: -0.0

CHICHI Injuries

0.0 pts impact
Elias Castro(HB)
81 OVR → 82-0.0 pts
OFF impact: -0.0
DEF impact: -0.0
Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by +0.5 points.

TENTEN Schedule

SOS: 0.504
Games Played467
Opponent Record1416W - 1395L
Opp Win %50.4%
Spread Adj0.0 pts

CHICHI Schedule

SOS: 0.515
Games Played467
Opponent Record1450W - 1364L
Opp Win %51.5%
Spread Adj+0.1 pts

Projections based on season-to-date averages with 2.5-point home field advantage. Spreads adjusted for injuries (player OVR drop-off) and strength of schedule (opponent quality). For entertainment purposes only.