Golden Goose

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Week 16 Regular Season

New York Jets

(6-8) • Away

20.8PPG

23.3PA

KEY INJURIESSpread impact: -0.5 pts

HOUHealthy

No key injuries reported

NYJ1 out • -0.3 pts

Cameron Friedman (WR)85 OVR

Game Projections

Spread

NYJ -4

INJ adj: -0.5

ACC adj: +1.5

SOS adj: -0.5

Base: -4.5

NYJ favored

Money Line

HOU+195

NYJ-195

Win Prob34% / 66%

Over/Under

Combined projected points

Team O/U

23.5

HOU

25.5

NYJ

MODEL CONFIDENCEHIGH

88%

Strong data agreement across all model factors. Higher reliability expected.

Prediction Breakdown

PPG Matchup-3.5

HOU: 19.9 OFF / 28.4 DEF — NYJ: 22.1 OFF / 23.9 DEF

Home Field-1.0

Win Rate-6.5

HOU: 3-11 — NYJ: 6-8

Recent Form+2.5

HOU: -6.9 pts — NYJ: -9.4 pts

Injury Impact+0.5

HOU: 0 out — NYJ: 1 out

Team ADJ (historical)+1.5

Final SpreadNYJ -4

Offense (Per Game)

HOUSTATNYJ

20.2

PPG

20.8

206.3

Total YPG

235.1

156.5

Pass YPG

160.5

49.8

Rush YPG

74.6

1.2

Pass TD/G

0.8

0.1

Rush TD/G

0.6

1.3

TO/G

1.8

42.9%

3rd Down %

35.5%

46.7%

RZ TD %

28.6%

Defense (Per Game)

HOUSTATNYJ

29.8

PPG Allowed

23.3

242.2

Total YPG

292.1

162.1

Pass YPG

195.9

80.1

Rush YPG

96.3

1.8

Sacks/G

3.9

0.4

INTs/G

0.3

0.4

Takeaways/G

1.6

0.1

FF/G

1.4

Prop Predictions

Projected stat lines based on season averages and opponent matchups. Starters only for player props.

HOU Props

Total Points

23.0

Points Against (Def)

25.0

Pass Yards

260.0

passAttempts

35.0

passTds

1.5

Rush Yards

80.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

18.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

345.0

Sacks Recorded

4.5

Turnovers

1.5

defPointsAgainst

25.0

defTackles

30.0

defSacks

4.5

defTFLs

8.5

defInterceptions

0.5

defForcedFumbles

0.0

defFumbleRecoveries

0.0

defTds

0.0

NYJ Props

Total Points

24.5

Points Against (Def)

21.5

Pass Yards

215.0

passAttempts

29.0

passTds

0.5

Rush Yards

100.0

rushTds

0.5

rushAttempts

22.0

fgMade

0.0

Total Yards

315.0

Sacks Recorded

3.5

Turnovers

0.5

defPointsAgainst

21.5

defTackles

42.0

defSacks

3.5

defTFLs

6.0

defInterceptions

0.5

defForcedFumbles

1.5

defFumbleRecoveries

1.5

defTds

0.0

Key Matchup Edges

NYJ

Turnover Battle

HOU: -12 | NYJ: -2

NYJ

Pass Rush

HOU: 1.8 sacks/g | NYJ: 3.9 sacks/g

HOU

Home Field

HOU playing at home (+2.5 pts)

Injury Impact on Spread

Spread adjusted by -0.5 points based on key player injuries and backup quality

NYJ Injuries

-0.3 pts impact

Cameron Friedman(WR)

85 OVR → 82-0.3 pts

OFF impact: -0.3

DEF impact: -0.0

Strength of Schedule Impact

SOS measures opponent quality. Teams with tougher schedules get favorable adjustments. Spread adjusted by -0.5 points.

HOU Schedule

SOS: 0.506

Games Played467

Opponent Record1421W - 1389L

Opp Win %50.6%

Spread Adj0.0 pts

NYJ Schedule

SOS: 0.504

Games Played467

Opponent Record1417W - 1397L

Opp Win %50.4%