SPREAD ACCURACY

Track how accurate our spread predictions are compared to actual game outcomes.

367

Games Analyzed

12.9

Avg Deviation (pts)

Anomaly Teams

Teams Adjusted

TEAM BREAKDOWN

LAR

Los Angeles Rams

24 games analyzed

23.9

Avg Dev

+10.4

Over-predicts

-3.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

DEN

Denver Broncos

21 games analyzed

21.5

Avg Dev

+10.9

Over-predicts

-5.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

Las Vegas Raiders

25 games analyzed

21.3

Avg Dev

-18.8

Under-predicts

-9.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

PHI

Philadelphia Eagles

22 games analyzed

19.3

Avg Dev

+2.4

Over-predicts

-5.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

DET

Detroit Lions

21 games analyzed

19.2

Avg Dev

-3.6

Under-predicts

-6.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

Kansas City Chiefs

22 games analyzed

16.5

Avg Dev

-12.4

Under-predicts

+4.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

SEA

Seattle Seahawks

20 games analyzed

15.5

Avg Dev

-3.6

Under-predicts

-7.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

DAL

Dallas Cowboys

24 games analyzed

14.8

Avg Dev

+8.9

Over-predicts

+4.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

Green Bay Pack

25 games analyzed

14.7

Avg Dev

-4.5

Under-predicts

+5.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

CIN

Cincinnati Bengals

24 games analyzed

14.4

Avg Dev

+2.5

Over-predicts

+5.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

Tampa Bay Bucs

23 games analyzed

14.1

Avg Dev

-1.1

Under-predicts

-2.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

BUF

Buffalo Bills

23 games analyzed

13.8

Avg Dev

+7.0

Over-predicts

+5.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

CLE

Cleveland Browns

23 games analyzed

13.5

Avg Dev

-2.2

Under-predicts

Needs Adjustment

CHI

Chicago Bears

25 games analyzed

13.1

Avg Dev

+6.1

Over-predicts

+6.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

JAX

Jacksonville Jags

23 games analyzed

13.0

Avg Dev

-5.6

Under-predicts

+3.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

New Orleans Saints

25 games analyzed

12.7

Avg Dev

+4.5

Over-predicts

-2.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

MIN

Minnesota Vikes

22 games analyzed

12.4

Avg Dev

-6.0

Under-predicts

-3.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

IND

Indianapolis Colts

26 games analyzed

12.4

Avg Dev

-2.2

Under-predicts

Needs Adjustment

PIT

Pittsburgh Steelers

24 games analyzed

11.8

Avg Dev

-6.6

Under-predicts

Needs Adjustment

NYG

New York G-Men

22 games analyzed

11.6

Avg Dev

0.0

Balanced

-0.5

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

BAL

Baltimore Ravens

18 games analyzed

11.5

Avg Dev

0.0

Balanced

Needs Adjustment

HOU

Houston Texans

21 games analyzed

10.8

Avg Dev

0.0

Balanced

+3.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

LAC

Los Angeles Bolts

24 games analyzed

10.8

Avg Dev

-4.8

Under-predicts

+4.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

San Francisco Niners

24 games analyzed

10.1

Avg Dev

+7.4

Over-predicts

-1.0

Adjustment

Needs Adjustment

ARI

Arizona Cardinals

20 games analyzed

9.4

Avg Dev

-7.4

Under-predicts

+2.5

Adjustment

Fair

NYJ

New York Jets

23 games analyzed

8.8

Avg Dev

+5.7

Over-predicts

+1.5

Adjustment

Fair

TEN

Tennessee Titans

25 games analyzed

8.2

Avg Dev

0.0

Balanced

+0.5

Adjustment

Fair

ATL

Atlanta Falcons

25 games analyzed

8.0

Avg Dev

-8.0

Under-predicts

+0.5

Adjustment

Fair

New England Pats

20 games analyzed

6.9

Avg Dev

+1.6

Over-predicts

-2.5

Adjustment

Good

WAS

Washington Commanders

26 games analyzed

6.6

Avg Dev

-6.6

Under-predicts

-1.0

Adjustment

Good

CAR

Carolina Panthers

24 games analyzed

6.5

Avg Dev

-6.0

Under-predicts

+2.0

Adjustment

Good

MIA

Miami Phins

20 games analyzed

5.5

Avg Dev

-5.3

Under-predicts

-1.0

Adjustment

Good

ACCURACY SCALE

Excellent (0-3 pts)

Good (3-7 pts)

Fair (7-10 pts)

Needs Adjustment (14+ pts)

Teams flagged as "Needs Adjustment" have automatic spread corrections applied. The adjustment value is added to future spread predictions to improve accuracy. Bias shows whether the model tends to over-predict (favors team too much) or under-predict (underestimates team).